US Elections Weekly Update

Published on 2024-10-13

As the U.S. presidential race heats up with Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump in a near tie, investors are preparing for the possibility of a contested election result, which could rattle the booming stock market. Polls show Harris leading by a slim margin, but the close race is heightening concerns that any uncertain outcome might trigger volatility. With memories of Trump's efforts to contest the 2020 election still fresh, market analysts, like Walter Todd from Greenwood Capital, caution that stocks could sell off if the result remains unclear for several days. While the S&P 500 has surged by 21% this year, political uncertainty has begun to weigh on investor sentiment, reflected in rising volatility indices. Financial experts advise hedging against potential post-election turmoil, but many believe any market dip could be temporary, with a likely rebound once the election fog clears.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has reignited his hardline stance on immigration, promising the largest deportation event in U.S. history if elected, claiming that immigrants are taking jobs from Black and Hispanic communities. However, economists warn that such a move could cost taxpayers up to a trillion dollars and drive up living costs, particularly in food and housing. Contrary to Trump's claims, government data shows that immigrant labor fuels economic growth by filling jobs that native-born workers often avoid, especially in agriculture and construction. Experts like labor economist Giovanni Peri argue that removing millions of immigrant workers would cripple key industries, force companies toward automation, and reduce job opportunities for U.S. workers. As the 2024 election approaches, Trump's controversial immigration plan has sparked fierce debate about its potential economic fallout.

As the 2024 election nears, Michigan has become a key battleground, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris fiercely competing for the state’s influential auto worker vote. Trump, focusing his message on fears of job losses, claims that Harris’s push for electric vehicles (EVs) threatens Michigan’s economy. His rhetoric resonates with some voters like Doug, a unionized Ford worker, who worries that the EV transition will cost auto workers their jobs. Harris, however, has pushed back, emphasizing that her administration would not mandate an end to gas-powered cars, seeking to reassure voters at a rally in Flint that she respects their choices. Despite significant federal investments to convert Michigan’s auto plants for EV production, some workers remain skeptical, with many feeling disconnected from the Democratic Party due to rising costs of living. Experts suggest that winning over disillusioned former Democratic voters in Michigan could be key to either candidate's success, as polls show Trump gaining ground in a state that Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020.

As the 2024 presidential race intensifies, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a critical issue, with both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris outlining starkly different visions for the future of AI in America. Trump has focused on AI as a key tool in maintaining U.S. dominance in global technological competition, particularly against rivals like China. At recent rallies, he emphasized the importance of investing in AI development for defense and economic growth, portraying Harris as weak on AI innovation. Trump’s rhetoric is aimed at voters concerned about America’s leadership in the global tech race, as he promises policies that would fast-track AI advancements, especially in military applications.

On the other hand, Harris has framed AI development through the lens of ethical responsibility and worker protection. She advocates for a balanced approach, where AI technology serves both innovation and social equity. At a town hall in Michigan, Harris stressed the need for regulations that prevent AI from displacing workers without safety nets and ensure the technology is used ethically, particularly in areas like surveillance and data privacy. Her stance appeals to union workers and middle-class voters worried about automation’s impact on their jobs, positioning her as a defender of fair labor practices in the face of AI disruption.

The AI arms race is not just about technology but also about the broader economic and geopolitical implications. While Trump’s aggressive stance on AI may resonate with those focused on national security and maintaining a competitive edge, Harris’s approach aims to balance innovation with societal well-being. As the candidates clash on this issue, voters face a choice between rapid AI advancement with fewer regulations or a more cautious, regulated approach that considers both innovation and the potential human cost.