US Elections Weekly Update

Published on 2024-11-03

Trump, Harris Battle in North Carolina

In the final days before the 2024 election, Donald Trump is intensifying his North Carolina campaign with daily rallies, emphasizing the swing state's importance for his path to victory. With recent stops in Gastonia and Greensboro and upcoming events in Kinston and Raleigh, Trump’s focus on North Carolina aims to secure a state he narrowly won in previous elections. Early GOP turnout has surged, outpacing Democratic voters for the first time, though North Carolina’s large independent voter base remains a crucial factor. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris has made fewer stops but rallied in Charlotte, signaling Democratic interest in the state. The impact of Hurricane Helene, which damaged parts of North Carolina, adds complexity, and GOP gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson faces controversy over alleged explicit online posts, potentially affecting down-ballot races. Both campaigns recognize North Carolina's decisive role, with Trump and Harris each vying to mobilize their bases in this critical battleground.

Iowa Emerges as Key Battleground in Tight Race Between Harris and Trump

In a surprising shift, Iowa has become a key battleground in the 2024 U.S. presidential race, with polls showing a tight contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. According to the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted in late October, Harris leads with 47% support among likely voters compared to Trump's 44%, a notable change from Trump’s 2020 victory in the state. This surge for Harris is largely driven by strong support from independent female voters, especially around issues like reproductive rights. However, the Trump campaign argues that this poll is an outlier, referencing a recent Emerson College poll showing him with a 10-point lead. With Election Day fast approaching, Iowa’s swing remains a significant focal point for both campaigns, intensifying efforts to sway undecided voters in a fiercely competitive race.

Judge Allows Weekend Ballot Drop-Offs in Georgia, Rejects GOP Lawsuit

A Georgia judge rejected a Republican lawsuit attempting to prevent Democratic-leaning counties, including Fulton County, from opening election offices over the weekend to accept in-person absentee ballot returns. Despite the lawsuit’s claim that state law restricts ballot drop boxes after early voting, Judge Kevin Farmer ruled that voters are allowed to hand-deliver absentee ballots until polls close on Election Day. Republicans sent letters to several counties demanding that ballots received after Friday be kept separate, hinting at further legal action. Scrutiny over Fulton County’s election practices has increased since Trump’s unfounded claims of 2020 election fraud, with the GOP accusing Democratic-controlled counties of "illegally accepting ballots." Initial confusion over observer access was resolved when Fulton County clarified that the public could observe ballot returns without credentials. Independent monitors and state investigators were also on-site to ensure transparency.

Topic of the week : With Two Days Until Election, Markets Brace for Trump vs. Harris Impact

With just two days left until the U.S. presidential election, the stock and commodities markets are bracing for dramatic shifts depending on who wins. A Trump victory would likely energize traditional sectors like oil, defense, and manufacturing, as his policies have historically leaned toward tax cuts, deregulation, and prioritizing domestic industry. Investors might see a surge of confidence in industries tied to traditional energy sources and national production, with oil and gas stocks potentially climbing.

 However, this outcome might cast a shadow over tech and renewable energy, as Trump’s policies could skew away from clean energy support, making these sectors riskier bets in the short term. A win for Kamala Harris would likely paint a very different picture on Wall Street. With her anticipated support for climate action, renewable energy, and healthcare reform, sectors tied to clean energy, tech innovation, and sustainable infrastructure could thrive. Harris’s administration might propel green energy stocks upward, as investors expect a shift toward policies that favor environmental investment.

 However, higher corporate taxes—a potential part of her economic plan—could make high-profit sectors like tech less appealing, as companies weigh the impact on their bottom line. Oil and gas might face headwinds under Harris, with more regulations likely dampening growth in fossil fuels. Commodities markets would be equally stirred by each candidate’s policies. Trump’s pro-energy stance could see oil and gas prices rally, while safe-haven assets like gold might lose some appeal as economic growth becomes a focal point. But under Harris, renewables like lithium and rare earth metals—essential for electric vehicles and green technology—could see unprecedented demand. Gold, too, might attract more investors as a safety net against inflation and regulatory changes, especially if spending increases under her administration. As the election nears and the final countdown begins, markets are watching every poll, debate, and policy signal, bracing for volatility—and perhaps opportunity—depending on who takes the White House.


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